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商品編號： UV7452 出版日期： 2018/04/25 作者姓名： Baucells, Manel 商品類別： General management 商品規格： 9p 再版日期： 2022/04/06 地域： 產業： 個案年度： -
商品敘述：
Individuals'' judgement of probabilities-the likelihood of different events to occur, or the attribution of likely causes to what has occurred-is plagued by numerous biases and errors. This note focuses on Bayesian updating and the base rate neglect, and also provides a brief overview of other biases, including overconfidence, reversion to the mean, the law of small numbers, the conjunction fallacy, confirming evidence bias, hindsight bias, and the conjunction fallacy. Numerous examples illustrate the implications of the biases for managerial decisions.
涵蓋領域：
Behavioral economics;Probability;Quantitative analysis
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